Week 14 AFC Playoff Look: Colts Game Of The Year Approaching
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INDIANAPOLIS – If the Colts want any realistic shot at making the playoffs in 2024, a must-win game awaits when they return from their bye week.
At 6-7, the Colts are sitting 8th in the AFC, one position outside of a playoff spot.
When the Colts return from their Week 14 bye, they’ll play the Broncos (8-6) in Denver, with major playoff implications on the line with a 4:25 PM kickoff.
Per the New York Times playoff predictor, the Colts currently have a 26 percent at making the playoffs. If the Colts beat the Broncos, the playoffs chances ill rise to 59 percent. If the Colts lose to the Broncos, the playoff chances will drop to 8 percent. Basically, a win would put the Colts in a position to make the playoffs, still needing some help. A loss would mean the Colts would need a miracle to make the postseason.
A couple of things to note on the Colts’ current situation:
- Yes, the Colts still have a chance at winning the AFC South. But it’s going to take a ton of winning from the Colts (6-7) and help from the Texans (8-5). Both teams on their bye this week, leaving 4 games left for each. Because the Texans have secured the head-to-head tiebreaker already, the Colts must makeup 3 games in those 4 weeks against Houston to win their first division title since 2014. That means a 4-0 finish by the Colts and the Texans going 1-3 or 0-4; or a 3-1 finish by the Colts and an 0-4 finish by the Texans. The Colts finish with these 4 games: at Broncos, Titans, at Giants, Jaguars. The Texans finish with these 4 games: Dolphins, at Chiefs, Ravens, at Titans. Again, this is very unlikely, but still possible.
- Yes, the Colts have a better shot at making the playoffs via the AFC Wild Card, with a massive, massive, massisve game waiting at Denver in Week 15. With a Colts win, they’ll be one game back of the Broncos, but have that critical head-to-head tiebreaker. If that occurs, the Colts would then need to be just 1 game better than the Broncos in the final 3 weeks (i.e. Colts go 3-0/Broncos go 2-1 or worse; Colts go 2-1/Broncos go 1-2 or worse; Colts go 1-2/Broncos go 0-3). Again, the Colts finish with these 4 games: at Broncos, Titans, at Giants, Jaguars. The Broncos finish with these 4 games: Colts, at Chargers, at Bengals, Chiefs.
- Basically, the AFC playoff picture is down to 8, maybe 9, teams for 7 spots. Miami at 5-7 would need to go on a huge run to move into the playoff picture. It is unusual to see such separation with 5 weeks to go but that’s how the AFC is—super top/bottom heavy—in 2024.
- Outside of rooting against Denver and Miami, the Colts would find some benefit if Baltimore (8-5) starts to slip. The Ravens are also on a bye and then close with these final 4 games: at Giants, Steelers, at Texans, Browns. The Colts would need to finish 2 games better than the Ravens in the final 4 for it to matter in possibly finishing above Baltimore.
- If you want a closer look at the NFL’s tiebreaker procedures for the playoffs, head here.
Here’s a look at the AFC standings with 5 weeks remaining:
Division Leaders (overall record, conference record, New York Times playoff odds)
1. Chiefs (11-1, 6-1, 100%): Chargers, at Browns, Texans, at Steelers, at Broncos
2. Bills (10-2, 7-2, 100%): at Rams, at Lions, Patriots, Jets, at Patriots
3. Steelers (9-3, 6-2, 99%): Browns, at Eagles, at Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals
4. Texans (8-5, 6-2, 96%): Dolphins, at Chiefs, Ravens, at Titans
Wild Card Teams
5. Chargers (8-4, 5-3, 95%): at Chiefs, Bucs, Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders
6. Ravens (8-5, 5-4, 98%): at Giants, Steelers, at Texans, Browns
7. Broncos (8-5, 4-4, 49%): Colts, at Chargers, at Bengals, Chiefs
Outside Looking In
8. Colts (6-7, 5-4, 24%): at Broncos, Titans, at Giants, Jaguars
9. Dolphins (5-7, 4-4, 16%): Jets, at Texans, 49ers, at Browns, at Jets
10. Bengals (4-8, 2-6, 2%): at Cowboys, at Titans, Browns, Broncos, at Steelers
Week 14 AFC Playoff Look: Colts Game Of The Year Approaching was originally published on 1075thefan.com
